Q2 2020 National Economic Overview After a strong start to the year, the US economy was put into a coma in mid-March to prevent the novel coronavirus from potentially killing millions. Were it not for the massively stimulative policies emanating from Washington, DC, another Great Depression would have been a distinct possibility. Fortunately, the worst was avoided and the shortest recession in US history probably ended in April, if not May. As for the recovery, it is likely to be check mark shaped, meaning a steep decline followed by a slow steady recovery, such by late 2022, GDP has recovered to where it was before the onset of the pandemic. That said, there is the possibility of a dreaded W-shape recovery if the virus forcefully returns in fall 2020. As for unemployment, it will probably end the year above 10%, but well down from its peak of almost 20% in April. Regarding the November elections, markets are beginning to realize that presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s chances of unseating President Trump are currently well above 50%.
In the housing market, through mid-March sales were very strong but then began to quickly weaken and bottomed out in early April, with Y-o-Y sales activity down about 30%. Since the end of nationwide lockdowns, sales have staged a furious recovery, with first time mortgage applications having not only made up all lost ground but up Y-o-Y over 20%. There are several reasons for the strong...
